The Berliner Zeitung explores the curious question of the goals of the special military operation – what are they, actually? The question is all the more relevant because it bears a direct relation to the possible ways Russian officials could frame any outcome as a victory. The article features extensive comments from Abbas Gallyamov, Ivan Philippov, and me.
НАСТОЯЩИЙ МАТЕРИАЛ (ИНФОРМАЦИЯ) ПРОИЗВЕДЕН И (ИЛИ) РАСПРОСТРАНЕН ИНОСТРАННЫМ АГЕНТОМ [ФИО] ЛИБО КАСАЕТСЯ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ ИНОСТРАННОГО АГЕНТА [ФИО] НОРМА ПРИЗНАНА НЕЗАКОННОЙ РЕШЕНИЕМ ЕСПЧ
The text is behind a paywall, of course, so here are my quotes in an English translation and a pretty picture of Nikolskaya Street as of this February.
https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/geopolitik/ziele-im-nebel-russlands-krieg-und-die-suche-nach-einer-rechtfertigung-li.2302158
"Three years after the start of the war, the central question remains unanswered: Why are thousands dying on both sides? According to political scientist Yekaterina Schulmann, this ambiguity is deliberate. "The autocratic regime in Russia is keeping as many grey areas open as possible in order to sell every outcome as a success. First they invent terms like 'demilitarization', and later they can be interpreted as they wish - or not. The power elite is neither accountable to its citizens nor bound by public obligations, which explains the vague war rhetoric."
Jekaterina Schulmann sees this conscious turning away as a form of self-protection. Thinking about the meaning of the war leads to nothing but emotional pain: "If a Russian asks himself this question - what then? What should he do with this knowledge? Arrange a self-immolation in a central city square?"
The Kremlin has long since recognized that the war has little support among the population and has therefore refrained from large-scale mobilization. Instead, it is largely leaving the people alone. Ultra-patriots are already making fun of this strategy and calling it "Sleep, you great country" - a sarcastic allusion to the song "Stand up, you great country", which in 1941 called on Soviet citizens to resist Hitler's troops. Political scientist Schulmann does not see this strategy as a weakness, but rather as a conscious decision by the Russian leadership.
An autocracy like the Russian one does not need popular mobilization, because the war is fought "with a mixture of coercion and bribery." Clear war aims are therefore not only unnecessary, but even a hindrance. "You can hardly get people excited about the 'demilitarization' of another country with 'Stand up, you great country,'" says Schulmann, who had to leave Russia and now lives in Berlin.
But Schulmann warns that as soon as the hostilities are over, the mood in the country will change. "In a situation full of uncertainty and danger to life, no one asks why. But after the war, after the initial relief that everything is over, the question will inevitably arise: what was that really?" This moment could be dangerous for the Russian political system - and the Kremlin is already preparing for it.
НАСТОЯЩИЙ МАТЕРИАЛ (ИНФОРМАЦИЯ) ПРОИЗВЕДЕН И (ИЛИ) РАСПРОСТРАНЕН ИНОСТРАННЫМ АГЕНТОМ [ФИО] ЛИБО КАСАЕТСЯ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ ИНОСТРАННОГО АГЕНТА [ФИО] НОРМА ПРИЗНАНА НЕЗАКОННОЙ РЕШЕНИЕМ ЕСПЧ
The text is behind a paywall, of course, so here are my quotes in an English translation and a pretty picture of Nikolskaya Street as of this February.
https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/geopolitik/ziele-im-nebel-russlands-krieg-und-die-suche-nach-einer-rechtfertigung-li.2302158
"Three years after the start of the war, the central question remains unanswered: Why are thousands dying on both sides? According to political scientist Yekaterina Schulmann, this ambiguity is deliberate. "The autocratic regime in Russia is keeping as many grey areas open as possible in order to sell every outcome as a success. First they invent terms like 'demilitarization', and later they can be interpreted as they wish - or not. The power elite is neither accountable to its citizens nor bound by public obligations, which explains the vague war rhetoric."
Jekaterina Schulmann sees this conscious turning away as a form of self-protection. Thinking about the meaning of the war leads to nothing but emotional pain: "If a Russian asks himself this question - what then? What should he do with this knowledge? Arrange a self-immolation in a central city square?"
The Kremlin has long since recognized that the war has little support among the population and has therefore refrained from large-scale mobilization. Instead, it is largely leaving the people alone. Ultra-patriots are already making fun of this strategy and calling it "Sleep, you great country" - a sarcastic allusion to the song "Stand up, you great country", which in 1941 called on Soviet citizens to resist Hitler's troops. Political scientist Schulmann does not see this strategy as a weakness, but rather as a conscious decision by the Russian leadership.
An autocracy like the Russian one does not need popular mobilization, because the war is fought "with a mixture of coercion and bribery." Clear war aims are therefore not only unnecessary, but even a hindrance. "You can hardly get people excited about the 'demilitarization' of another country with 'Stand up, you great country,'" says Schulmann, who had to leave Russia and now lives in Berlin.
But Schulmann warns that as soon as the hostilities are over, the mood in the country will change. "In a situation full of uncertainty and danger to life, no one asks why. But after the war, after the initial relief that everything is over, the question will inevitably arise: what was that really?" This moment could be dangerous for the Russian political system - and the Kremlin is already preparing for it.
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